Shots by time period
- Injury time an obvious factor
- Early shots more speculative? We've all seen a player hit a 30 yard 'sighter' early on.
- Blocked results not intuitive here? I might have expected them to rise later on.
Percentage of shots in each half
- Every team takes more shots in the second half than the first half.
Percentage of shots in first 30 minutes
Who tries to start fast?
Kitchen sink time at Loftus Road?
- Villa tail off horribly as the game goes on. Something Sherwood will need to target. Fitness?
I've got a loose working theory that a blocked shot can be attributed to some degree to poor choice from the player, at least over large samples. In contrast, 'on target' shots have been shown at team level to be of high value, repeatable and predictive. Somewhat closer to a blocked shot in terms of value would be an 'off target' shot, I imagine a high degree of variance in 'value' dependent on how far off target the shot is. Anyway just thoughts, but from this, I posit that a team that finds a low percentage of its shots blocked may be taking 'smart' shots. It may be refusing a poor value, likely-blocked shot and continuing to keep possession, only shooting when sufficient space becomes available. So we have a simple measure, the difference in percentage points between a team's rate of 'on target' (smart) shots and 'blocked' (stupid) shots.
- It's is pleasing that the prescriptive football of Van Gaal, Koeman and Mourinho is represented at the top.
- It is also pleasing that the 'run around a bit' football of Redknapp is represented at the bottom.
So just a quick post, bit of food for thought?
Thanks for reading!
I've got an article on '"Arsenal, Score Effects and a Season Of Two Halves" up at Statsbomb, give it a whirl!
The weekly column resides over there now too.